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Krig i Europa? Ikke længere umuligt

Mørke advarsler fra den polske finansminister om muligheden for krig i Europa, hvis krisen bliver dybere, er blevet mødt med skepsis. Men der er ingen grund til at være afslappet omkring, hvad aktuelle, nationalistiske tendenser kan medføre.

Da han talte til Europa-Parlamentet den 14. September i år, kom den polske finansminister Jan Vincent-Rostowski med denne alarmerende erklæring:

Vi skal redde Europa for enhver pris. Faren for en potentiel krig inden for de næste ti år [...] er et scenarie, vi bør overveje. Hvis euro-zonen skulle forsvinde, hvis den skulle eksplodere, så er der risiko for, at EU ikke kan overleve. Hvis EU ikke kan modstå dette chok, vil hele det europæiske projekt være i stor fare, hvilket vil føre til en situation, hvor vi inden for en årrække vil stå over for en anden stor fare.

Mange løftede øjenbrynene: en krig i Europa? Utænkeligt, især da det store flertal af europæere ikke var født, da den sidste store militær konfrontation skete. Sandt nok, i begyndelsen af 1990'erne gik Jugoslavien igennem et blodigt kollaps på vores dørtrin.

Men dengang virkede alting så fjernt, trods det faktum at disse ulykkelige steder kun var et par timers kørsel væk fra mange europæiske hovedstæder. Der er mange mulige argumenter mod ideen om, at en krig i Europa stadig kunne bryde ud. Men hvor gyldige er de midt i den storm, der har overtaget EU?

Den ene argument er, at "europæiske ledere ikke ville tillade det". Men hvilke ledere taler vi om? Det tyvende århundredes mest visionære? Bestemt ikke. Ikke alene vil et sammenbrud i det europæiske projekt frembringe en helt anden type leder, sammenbruddet ville faktisk være fremskyndet af dem. Vi kan allerede nu mærke deres tilstedeværelse på steder, der stadig er placeret i udkanten af de nationale politiske scener. Men de er stadig mere aktive og indflydelsesrige.

Den flamske nationalister, har for eksempel været i stand til at gøre dannelsen af en belgisk regering til en umulig ligning. Jobbik-aktivisterne i Ungarn, med deres irredentiske ideer, har stor indflydelse på vedtagelsen af en forfatning, der smager det nittende århundrede. De Sande Finner og de neoliberale slovaker i Friheds og Solidaritetspartiet (SaS), har, selvom de udgør mindretal, alligevel overtalt deres landes skrøbelige regeringer til at stille umulige betingelser for lån til Grækenland. For dem er den nationale stolthed vigtigere end at redde Europa.

I Frankrig, hvor Front National truer med at stjæle stemmer fra det regerende UMP, må sidstnævnte ty til en tåbelig retorik om rumænerne, som de præsenterer for deres nation som værende ansvarlig for alle mulige onder. Ligeledes har de hollandske højreorienterede skubbet regeringen i Haag i retning af en irrationel holdning imod optagelse af Rumænien og Bulgarien i Schengen-området.

Eksemplerne kunne blive ved. Politikere af denne art er kendetegnet ikke ved en kultur præget af kompromis, men af deres hævd, om at forsvare nationale interesser uanset omkostningerne og på, at de retter historiske uretfærdigheder, reelle eller indbildte. Hvad vil de gøre, når de er ved magten? Vil de skuffe deres vælgere, vise svaghed og forhandle? Eller vil de fortsætte til den bitre ende?

Et andet argument: "Der er ikke længere grund til en krig i Europa". Det er, hvad vi tror. Men integrationsprojektet og den økonomiske og sociale succes i Europa i de seneste årtier har blot dækket over gamle spændinger, der kan blusse op igen i krisetider. Forskellige ententer og hellige alliancer vil derefter dukker op, med de mindre og svagere stater, der sværmer omkring de større magter.

Efterhånden som det indre marked trækker sig tilbage i hukommelsen, vil den økonomiske underordning af små økonomier under de store begynde. En slags intern kolonialisme vil tage fat, hvor store virksomheder – nu åbenlyst – støttes af de større staters regeringer. En konkurrence om kommercielle privilegier vil skabe konflikter, der er utænkelige i dag. Lad os ikke glemme de lokale problemer heller: stigende spænding mellem wallonerne og flamlænderne, nyt momentum for baskiske, catalanske og korsikanske nationalistiske bevægelser eller fornyede konflikter mellem rumænere og ungarere eller mellem ungarere og slovakker. For ikke at nævne Balkan!

Integrationprojektets forsvinden vil føre til genopdagelsen af nationale projekter. Problemet på Balkan er, at hver nation (den være sig bulgarsk, rumænsk, græsk, albansk, makedonsk eller serbisk) ønsker at være "store". Men en stor nation forudsætter mindst én lille nabo. Og på den måde får tåbeligheden aldrig en ende.

Eller følgende argument: "EU-borgerne er ikke i humør til krig mere". Hvorfor skulle nutidens europæiske borgere ønske at dø i en grøft i stedet for at nyde det bedste sted at leve i verden, med dets generøse lønninger, lange ferier, sociale ydelser, god mad, dejlige byer og landskaber? Hvorfor skulle de følge formaninger af ledere, som ikke hænger rigtig i hovedet?

Dette ville være sandt, hvis det ikke var for den vold, vi har set bryde ud i de store byer i Europa. Hvem deltog? Medlemmer af en ny generation med ringe adgang til midaldrende middelklasse-europæeres livsstil. Unge berøves muligheden for at finde et arbejde, der ville tillade dem at have et anstændigt liv. Andengenerations-indvandrere, der ikke har været integreret og oplever en identitetskrise. Og alle mulige andre oprørere uden en årsag.

Mange ville deltage i en rigtig krig, hvis skrupelløse ledere for første gang i deres liv tilbød dem et formål. Muligheden for en "bedre og mere retfærdig verden" ville blive viftet foran deres øjne, de ville blive beruset af nationalistiske slogans eller, mere enkelt, forledt til at tro, at de kunne røve og voldtage uden at lide konsekvenserne senere. I sidste ende var disse alle ingredienserne i den jugoslaviske drama.

Disse ting er bestemt ikke sandsynligvis i dag. Men de er mulige. Lad os huske et gammelt ordsprog: vær forsigtig med, hvad du ønsker, fordi det kan blive til virkelighed!

 



Published 2012-02-03


Original in Romanian
First published in Dilema veche 397 (2011) (Romanian version); Eurozine (English version); Atlas (Danish version)

© Ovidiu Nahoi / Dilema veche
© Eurozine
 

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