Egbert Jahn
New Fronts after the War
Russia, the West, and the Future in the South Caucasus
The August 2008 war between Georgia and Russia drastically changed the situation in the Caucasus and strained relations between Russia and the West. Russia's military success could prove a Pyrrhic victory. Georgia's orientation to the West is bound to be permanent. Armenia has been geopolitically isolated by the new strategic situation. It must orient its foreign policy anew. This has brought movement to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. If Georgia is accepted into NATO and the West insists on Georgia's territorial integrity, then the illegal presence of Russian troops on NATO territory would have to be discussed. De-escalation of the situation can only be achieved by Russia recognising the independence of Kosovo and the West that of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Angelika Nussberger
The "Five-Day War" in Court
Russia, Georgia, and International Law
The "Five-Day War" between Russia and Georgia is the subject of a variety of cases before international courts. However, these can address only individual questions such as human rights violations or infringements of the ban on racial discrimination. The issues of international law at the heart of this conflict are very complex and do not allow one-dimensional answers regarding guilt and responsibility.

Mira Sovakar
No Peace without Democracy
Voices from Georgia
The Georgian public is divided in its assessment of the August 2008 war over South Ossetia. Some question the government's position that military action was necessary in order to prevent a Russian invasion. The events are assessed in a variety of ways by the people in South Ossetia, the Georgian heartland, and Abkhazia. In all three regions, civil society activists see their future – whether together or apart – in the establishment of stable democratic structures. Without these, it is impossible to create long-term stability and peace in the region.

Azer Babayev
Repercussions of the War in Georgia
Movement in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
The war in South Ossetia knocked open a window for the peaceful solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The August crisis left Armenia – the only country in the region that supports Nagorno-Karabakh's efforts to gain independence – isolated and weakened. Azerbaijan, which demands the integration of Nagorno-Karabakh into its territory, has announced its willingness to guarantee extensive autonomy to the Armenians of the region. Since the conflict, the United States and Russia, unlike the European Union, have attached greater importance to Azerbaijan's territorial integrity than before.

Lilia Shevtsova
The End of an Era
Russia's Break with the West
The war over South Ossetia has brought about the end of an era in post-Soviet history. Mikhail Gorbachev ended the Cold War and initiated democratic reforms. Under Vladimir Putin and Dmitrii Medvedev, Moscow has sought confrontation with the West. All hopes of integrating Russia into the community of liberal-democratic states will have to be abandoned until further notice. Only after the unavoidable collapse of the current regime will a new start be possible.

Boris Dubin
TV War and Real War
Russia: The Caucasus Conflict in Minds of the People
The majority of Russia's population gets its information about political events from television. Despite widespread distrust of the state-controlled media, such sources of information have a decisive influence on the Russian population's attitude towards its neighbours in the Caucasus. In the recent conflict with Georgia, the Soviet model of mobilising against an external enemy was easily reactivated. The majority of the people support the Kremlin's course of action. However, over half of those surveyed called for international mediators to resolve the conflict. By contrast, few see the parallels to the war in Chechnia.

Gemma Pörzgen
Conflict over Interpretation
The War in Georgia in German Print Media
Charges that the German media is one-sided and critical in its reporting on Russia are widespread and were once again raised during the Georgian crisis during the summer of 2008. An analysis of Bild, Spiegel, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and Süddeutsche Zeitung shows that the journalistic work in these four periodicals varied greatly. There was no uniform tenor.

Otto Luchterhandt
A Failed Community
On the History of South Ossetia and Georgia
In losing the August 2008 war, Georgia has probably lost the renegade areas of South Ossetia and Abkhazia forever. In the case of South Ossetia, the natural landscape, ethnic make up, socio-economic relations, and administrative history spoke against such a development. A political settlement between Ossetia and Georgia on the basis of a constitutionally guaranteed territorial autonomy would have been possible. This chance has been squandered.

Hella Engerer
Russia's Energy Exports
Potentials, Strategies, Perspectives
Russia's oil and natural gas exports are of great importance for Europe's energy supplies. The future extent and direction of supplies will depend on Russia's energy policy as well as its export strategies. The amount of exports mentioned in prognoses can only be achieved if energy efficiency in Russia increases, coal replaces natural gas, price controls are eliminated, and considerable investments are made in the energy sector. Given the investment climate in Russia and the effects of the financial crisis, such forecasts are open to doubt.

Karlheinz Kasper
Megalopolis versus Province
Russian contrasts in fiction
Provincial towns, a recurring theme in Russian literature since the mid-19th century, have always stood in tension to the two capitals Moscow and St. Petersburg. They reflected the bureaucratic hierarchy of administrative centres, appeared as a place of refuge for people who had failed in the big city, or were depicted as preserves of alarming intellectual parochialism. In recent times, several novels have taken up tensions between the megalopolis Moscow and real or fictitious provincial towns and produced critical analyses of Russian society. These include Sergeev i gorodok by Oleg Zaionchkovskii, Matiss by Aleksandr Ilichevskii, and Bluda i MUDO by Aleksei Ivanov.

Published 2008-12-05