"Rumours about a possible revolution are as real for the authorities as a revolution itself. The worst scenario is that the regime, lacking an actual political threat, develops an ignorant fear. [...] Its gravest consequence is the authorities' total war against all foreign or internal enemies, enabling them to nip freethinking in the bud." Thus Belarusian political scientist Vital Silitski, writing in Arche in January 2006 on Belarusian "election dramaturgy".

The Belarusian elections have been the subject of intense speculation from the media, Eurozine included. Now, on Sunday 19 March, the Belarusian United Opposition will show its strength at the ballot box when it votes for Aliaksandr Milinkevich. And while it is unlikely that the "Denim Revolution" will be successful on a scale comparable with the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, as many in the EU and the US hope, what is sure is that the Lukashenko regime will bully the opposition to avoid taking any chances:

"Since the beginning of January, what previously were civil offences have become criminal", report Alexandre Billette and Jean-Arnault Derens in the current issue of Le Monde diplomatique (Berlin) and (Oslo). "Simultaneously, the criminal code was extended by a new paragraph. Statements that 'discredit the Republic of Belarus' are punishable by prison sentences of between six months and two years. These changes in the law fuel a climate of fear and even silence organizations that are not suspected of opposing Lukashenko."

Restrictions on press freedom in Belarus were brought home when opposition movement Charter 97 reported that a copy of Eurozine partner magazine Arche had been confiscated from activist Yuri Chavusaw at the Belarusian-Lithuanian border. Chavusaw's article on the dialectic of revolution and anti-revolution, an analysis of strategies to counter the "Orange effect" in the post-Soviet space, appeared in Arche's November 2005 issue.

Like other independent papers, Arche is not sold at the state-owned kiosks, leaving only the state propaganda-organ Sovetskaya Belorussiya. A discourse analysis by Nerijus Prekevicius shows that whether depicting the US as the pariah of international politics, Belarus as a leading player in the world community, or the EU as a sinking ship, Sovetskaya Belorussiya plays fast and loose with the facts.

But it works: Lukashenko's patriarchal brand of nostalgic Soviet nationalism enjoys broad support, especially outside the cities. So what can the opposition realistically hope to achieve? "If politics is 'the art of the possible', a campaign that raises the level of civic activism will redefine the practical parameters within which Lukashenko operates," writes Andrew Wilson. "The opposition can also hope to encourage Lukashenko's gradual metamorphosis into an eclectic 'Soviet Belarusian' nationalist, and even a pragmatic politician who takes account of Belarus's post-2004 position as a border state to the 'New Europe' of the expanded EU. Much is at stake at these elections."

Published 2006-03-17

Original in English
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